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New York Respite
As the situation grew dire in New York last week, nurses made video pleas for the public’s help, a billionaire Chinese businessman delivered millions of last-second supplies, and the Surgeon General cautioned Americans to brace for the next Pearl Harbor. In what may end up being a last-second reprieve, Governor Cuomo on Sunday announced that for the first time since the crisis began, new cases have been in decline. Though Cuomo cautioned it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions, the announcement brings hope to millions of New Yorkers that we may be bending the curve in the nation’s hardest-hit city.
British PM Boris Johnson Admitted to Hospital on 10th Day of COVID Self-Quarantine
Photo Credit: By Ben Shread - User:AlbanGeller received this from the Cabinet Office., OGL 3, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=83764351
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has been in home quarantine since his COVID-19 diagnosis on March 27th, was admitted to the hospital Sunday after experiencing persistent symptoms on the 10th day of treatment. Though his office stated it’s a precaution, The Guardian previously reported rumors that Boris was in worse shape than he let on.
The news is concerning, as severe cases can rapidly worsen in the second week, sometimes leading to ICU admission and death.
Johnson has come under scrutiny in recent weeks for suggesting the policy of herd immunity—allowing the virus to infect a great enough percentage of the population (70%-92%) that it becomes noncommunicable.
By Tkarcher - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=56760604
Though 12 other prominent world leaders have been previously diagnosed, all have yet recovered. Should Johnson take a turn for the worse, it would be significant because complex systems are unpredictable and can lead to unforeseen complications.
The UK death toll stands at 4,934 out of 47,806 confirmed cases (10.3% case fatality rate).
New Orleans has Highest Fatality Case Ratio in US at 3.6%
A grim situation is unfolding in Louisiana, which leads the country with a coronavirus case fatality ratio of 3.6%.
As officials parse the data on case fatality rate estimates across different regions, we now know that several cultural, demographic and socioeconomic factors contribute to the widely varying death rates of the disease. Per government officials, Louisiana’s concerning numbers may correlate with the high incidences of diabetes, obesity, kidney disease and heart disease among its residents.
In response to the developing crisis, city officials leased the Sheraton hotel in downtown New Orleans, converting its rooms into a makeshift hospital to treat the expected influx of patients.
On Saturday, Greg Hilburn, Louisiana Politics reporter for USA Today tweeted a stark warning:
As states bid against one another for much-needed ventilators and hospital supplies, there is concern that Louisiana will suffer a similar tragedy to Hurricane Katrina, which ravaged the area in 2005 and cast national attention on the disparity between disaster response across differing American socioeconomic strata.
On Friday, Louisiana governor John Bel Edwards made a televised appeal to the people of Louisiana to adhere strictly to the shelter in place order issued on March 22nd. A recent cell phone data analysis by the New York Times shows that while New Orleans residents are largely complying with the order, those in rural parts of the state (and other areas of the South East, such as Florida) continue to buck the trend.
“We all have the power to determine the path we end up on. We are not strangers to hurricane maps and projections in Louisiana. In some ways this graph is no different. Like projected paths of a hurricane these curves show different potential paths of coronavirus in Louisiana,” said Governor Edwards. “Importantly, unlike a hurricane, we have the ability to redirect the path of this virus.”
Americans Advised to Wear Face Masks.
The US Government reversed course on Thursday, advising all Americans to wear a face mask to prevent the spread of Coronavirus.
The findings were reported in The Journal of Common Sense, alongside the groundbreaking discovery that wearing a jacket in winter can prevent the transmission of cold.
The stunning reversal begs the question: why were so many Americans averse to wearing masks in the first place?
Shit-Canned Captain Now Likely has COVID-19
On Thursday, the navy announced the dismissal of Captain Crozier from command of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, after a letter to navy brass was leaked to the San Francisco Chronicle. Though the navy cited a failure to use the proper chain of command, many are questioning whether the leaked letter may have been a response to the Navy’s failure to safeguard its sailors from the pandemic on tight ship quarters.
On Friday, Twitter users circulated the following video of Captain Crozier receiving a warm sendoff:
While many lauded the captain’s actions, President Trump was quick to express his displeasure that the captain chose to go outside the appropriate channels to voice his concerns.
On Sunday, the New York Times reported that Captain Crozier tested positive for COVID-19. The revelation will likely add fuel to the calls on capitol hill for an investigation into what went wrong.
Sweden Hedges Bet as COVID-19 Cases Spike
For weeks, The Swedish experiment has been lauded by some in the media as a viable—perhaps even better!—alternative to the more stringent lockdown measures imposed by other countries. Sweden has been an outlier in its response to the pandemic, refusing to close pubs, restaurants and social gathering places, relying instead on the good judgment of its people to observe common sense social distancing practices.
Now, under increasing pressure from critics as confirmed cases rise, Sweden’s Prime Minister, Stefan Löfven, is backing off the Swedish experiment, cautioning the public that the country “will have more seriously ill people who need intensive care.”
The Swedish response is led by State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who as recently as Sunday asserted that the recent UK adoption of lockdown measures had gone too far.
The next few weeks will show whether Sweden’s middle-of-the-road approach is a success. Though the strategy may pay economic dividends, the rewards don’t come without risks, given that we don’t know what we don’t know about the disease.
A Tale of Two Cities
Like Sweden, Florida has been bucking the trend, becoming one of the last few states to issue a statewide stay-at-home order on March 29th—nearly two weeks after California became the first state in the nation to do so.
During the start of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, as cases grew in Saint Paul and Minneapolis, the two cities took opposing mitigation strategies, with Saint Paul closing public gathering spaces nearly a month after Minneapolis. Though historians caution that many factors played a part, the cities ended up with dramatically different casualty rates: Minneapolis recorded a 5.2% case fatality rate, while St. Paul logged a startling 14.7%.
As states attempt to define the best timeline for mitigation strategies, there will no doubt be comparisons drawn between outcomes—particularly with Florida’s at-risk demographics; 20.5% of Florida’s population is over 65 years of age, putting it in line with Italy (23%), which has a case fatality rate of 12.3%.